America Isn’t Divided on Immigration. Washington Is.

To all who believe American politics are deeply polarized around hot button issues like immigration, the latest Napolitan News survey of 5,000 may be a little shocking. Rather than polarization, the survey found consensus. It turns out that 83% of voters nationwide believe that legal immigration is good for America. At the same time, 79% believe illegal immigration is bad.

These numbers didn’t surprise me at all. I’ve been asking the same polling question for decades and the results have been similar every time.

This time, however, I took the research a step further using a new Precision Politics Geo-Targeting Application developed by my polling firm. We collected rich demographic information from our five thousand respondents and then determined geo-targeted results for every state and Congressional District in the country. We accomplished this using regression and post-stratification, a statistical technique combining survey responses with census data.

The results showed that the consensus is even deeper and more widespread than the topline numbers suggest. In all 50 states — and in all 435 Congressional Districts — a solid majority of voters think that legal immigration is good for our nation and illegal immigration is bad.

The numbers are stunning and contradict much of the political narrative. In the very red states of Mississippi and Louisiana, 80% of voters think legal immigration is good for America. On the flip side, in the deep blue states of California, Massachusetts, and Vermont, 75% believe that illegal immigration is bad for America.

On a Congressional District basis, in 432 of the nation’s 435 Congressional Districts, at least 80% of voters believe that legal immigration is good for America. In the three exceptions —KY-5, LA-3, and LA-4 —79% hold that view. The mirror image results are similar on the question of illegal immigration (check out results for your state and Congressional District using our interactive data map or table).

In other words, no matter where you go in America, a large majority of voters believe that legal immigration is good for America and illegal immigration is bad. These results highlight the deeply held belief that America is both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants.

So, if there’s all that consensus, why is the political debate about immigration so polarized? The answer to that riddle can be found in the dysfunctional nature of our 10-10-80 political system. Most ten percenters on both sides of the ideological divide are more interested in pursuing their own agendas rather than representing the American people.

Many immigration activists on the left prefer an open borders approach and claim that all immigration — both legal and illegal — is good. That’s what they’re fighting for, despite the fact that only 16% of voters share their view. On the right, many immigration advocates believe all immigration is bad, a view shared by just 12% of voters.

So, the political activists fight passionately for their agenda and ignore the national consensus. In states like California, the open borders minority is bigger than the minority wanting to stop all immigration, so that perspective dominates state politics. The reverse is true in states like West Virginia and Kentucky.

For those who believe in America’s noble founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance, the challenge before us is how to stop the loudest and most politically engaged activists from drowning out the consent of the governed. When it comes to immigration, a good first step would be to insist that all discussion of the topic clarifies the distinction between legal and illegal immigration.

NOTE: This week, survey results from a dozen immigration questions are being released for every state and Congressional District. Geo-targeted results are being updated daily on our data map.